Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Did the Fat Lady Sing?

It's odd when a victory is basically explained away as a defeat, as is happening in the news today with Hillary Clinton's win in Indiana.

There aren't too many races left, and it'll all be over in June, one way or the other. Still, the only ones who get to decide who the nominee is voters, delegates and superdelegates. And not pundits. More than anything this election season, they have proved to be less than worthless. Not that their errors in judgment have stopped them from prognosticating. But it should make us, the readers, the consumers of such opinion, wary.

Update: Mother Jones' blog has an astute analysis of Hillary's choices.

First, keep fighting like nothing has changed. When their candidate is challenged, Clinton supporters respond with huge monetary shows of support. And when their careers are challenged, the Clintons themselves kick it into another gear. Hillary Clinton can double down on the upcoming primaries in West Virginia and Kentucky (where she leads by large margins), ratchet up the calls to seat Michigan and Florida, make a zillion phone calls to superdelegates every day, and hope that Obama gets caught in another Reverend Wright-esque sandstorm. . .

Second, she can drop out immediately. Despite the calls for this that are certain to ring through Obama-friendly parts of the blogosphere today, this may not be the best option for Obama. If Clinton drops out this week, Obama may lose the upcoming primaries in West Virginia and Kentucky to someone who is not on the ballot. . .

Third, lay the groundwork for a graceful exit in a few weeks. Assuming that Clinton sees the end of the road on the horizon, this choice has several advantages over option number two. First, the Clintons have donated a lot of their own money to the campaign; staying in and continuing to raise funds allows them to retire some of that debt. Second, the last two weeks of the campaign can take a conciliatory tone, attempting to convince Democratic voters who have cast their lot with Clinton that Obama ain't so bad after all. . .

At this point, the race is all about Hillary Clinton's psychology. She and she alone has to choose one of these three options. . .




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